CLIMATE CHANGES IN UKRAINE

Climate change - one of the most critical and most pressing environmental issues of today that humanity faces. Presented in the fourth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change final scientific data confirming the reality of global warming caused by human activities [3].

Long-term monitoring and research centers exhibit a pronounced tendency to increase in average temperature. Throughout the twentieth century the average temperature of the planet has increased by 0.60 C. According to forecasts of the leading international research centers on the study of climate in this century, temperatures will rise by 2-5 degrees. That rate of global warming will cause serious climate change and different ecosystems are threatened with extinction. Most experts attribute this phenomenon using large amounts of fossil fuels and the increase in atmospheric concentrations of gases are called greenhouse. A key indicator is the rate of global warming melting glaciers. To date, this process is unprecedented in its pace: According to the UN for the last 20 years of the twentieth century, the average annual melting of glaciers was 0.3 meters, reaching in 2000 by 0.5 meters, and now accelerated to 1.5 meters per year [ 2].

The climate of Ukraine is largely shaped by the global climate and is characterized by warming event, accompanied by a slight decrease in rainfall. The most intense warming in Ukraine of 1988-89 clearly posterihayetsya years. In the past, after this period it is most clearly expressed in the winter months, with an average monthly temperature of two winter months (January and February) increased the most. Gradually increasing the temperature summer months, a clear tendency of a decrease in temperature in November and December. [1]

Change of temperature and moisture regime in Ukraine, and the development of a large number of natural phenomena, and further constitute a characteristic feature of regional climate associated with changes in atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic region, causing the growing influence of Atlantic weather Ukraine [2]. In the last decade was offset to the east (20 º) "centers of atmosphere" and the Azores Siberian highs (anticyclones), which was accompanied by increasing the probability of formation of positive anomalies of temperature in Ukraine in winter.

Analysis of the average annual air temperature for 100 years of meteorological observations showed that the latter was the warmest decade of the XX century. (1991-2000 years), coldest - the first three decades of the twentieth century. and forties. As the data on declining average annual air temperature from the normal period 1999-2006, in the steppe zone of Ukraine, which are reflected in Figure 1, most years it exceeded the norm by 0,8-2,1 º C [4].

Figure 1 - Average annual air temperature from the norm

for the period 1990-2000, in the forest-steppe zone

In Kiev, for the period 1991 - 2005, the average temperature in January was higher by almost 3 0C in February - 2 0C in March, April, July, August, and for the whole year - 0.7 - 1.60 C, and in November and December - 0.5 - 0.7 0C lower than normal (period 1961 - 1990) in May, June, September, October - little has changed. A similar pattern is observed in other regions of the Forest. The average annual air temperature is the main characteristic of global warming, compared to the norm in Forest for 15 years has increased by 0.4-0.7 ° C. Increasing temperature led to changes in the development of natural processes - the time of installation and the destruction of the snow cover, changes in the length of seasons , respectively - of crops, pests and diseases [5].

According to the data shown in Figure 2, the 1989 positive and negative deviation values ​​of mean annual air temperature in the zone Polessye from the norm are in equilibrium. Since 1989, as in other climatic zones of Ukraine (steppe and forest-steppe), the average annual air temperature is mostly higher than the rate at 0.5-2.0. Exceptions were only two years - 1993 and 1996, when the average annual air temperature was close to or slightly lower than the climate norm. Average for 10 years (1999 -2008). deviation of annual air temperature was about 1.2 ° C plus This confirms that climate change is an extremely fast pace.

Figure 2 - Average annual air temperature from the norm

for the period 1961-2008 he was in the area Polessye

Change in mean air temperature in warm (April - October) and cold (November - March) periods in the area Polessye like to change this parameter in the central and southern regions, ie temperature cold period steadily increased since 1989, later determined the trend of growth it in the warm season.

The steppe zone, compared to the steppes and Polesie, changes in annual temperatures for a standard observation period (1961-1990 years) compared to the period of observation is a hundred years old - the least 0.2-0.3 0C upward.

Figure 3 - Average annual air temperature from the norm

for the period 1990-2007, in the steppe zone

Because of the temperature distribution in the cold season in the steppe regions has changed in terms of the duration of the onset of warm and cold periods up to 5-10 days.

In recent years, winter was virtually no long periods of average daily air temperatures below -5 0C. Decreased and the number of days with very low temperatures (below -15 - 20 ° C). As a result of these processes have improved conditions for wintering, reduced rest period wintering crops, frequent years when winter dormancy in plants was not observed at all.

In the steppe areas of vegetation of plants is on average 2-3 weeks before long-term.

Thermal plants available resources, as well as their wintering conditions are determined by the annual course of temperature. Contemporary climate change accompanied by a transformation of the periodic (daily and annual) component temperatures, which can cause both positive and negative consequences for agriculture. For example, extending the growing season possible, of course, a positive factor, but reduce the period of grain filling and accelerated ripening often lead to a decrease in yield. Change in diurnal temperature, in turn, may lead to changes in the timing and frequency of occurrence of frost, shifting relationship between photosynthesis and respiration of plants, other effects, including favorable conditions for pests and diseases.

Under the current rate of increase in temperature will often warm winter wintering crop pests, plant pathogens, weeds, which adversely affect the development of crops.

Experts estimate that climate change is already in the first two decades of the twenty-first century. High fever can occur in all months and seasons. However, the possibility will remain extremely cold periods, months, seasons. Since the beginning of the XXI century., Extremely cold winters may occur 1 every 10-15 years, with a probability of 10-15%. In the twenty-first century. expected slight decrease in temperature difference between the seasons, which will be most felt in the northern steppes.

According to local researchers [6], climate change for over 10 years as reflected in the productivity of crops and in the phytosanitary condition agrocenosis Ukraine, which has been deteriorating steadily. Since the response of biological systems to external stimuli is not linear, we should expect significant ecological crises in the agricultural domain. To domestic agricultural science faced a daunting task: to explore agri-environmental effects due to warming, and ground adaptation measures agrosphere.

Bibliographic list:

1. The climate of Ukraine / Ed. VM Lipinski, VA Dyachuk, VM Babichenko. - K.: Type of Raevskogo, 2003. - 343 p.

2. National Report on the State of Environment in Ukraine in 2009. - Ministry of Environmental Protection of Ukraine, 2009. - 282 p.

3. Sytnyk K., B. Bagnyuk biosphere and climate: Past, Present and Future / / Bulletin of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, № 9, 2006. - P.3-20.

4. Meteorological phenomena in Ukraine over the last two decades (1986-2005) / Ed. VM Lipinski, VI Osadchiy, VM Babichenko. - K.: Nick Center, 2006. - 312 c.

5. Chaika, VN Climate Change and phytosanitary condition of the forest agrocenosis [Text] / V. Chaika, TI Adamenko / / Agronomist. - 2008. - № 2. - S. 10-12.

6. Seagull VM, Melnychuk MD, Grygoryuk IP Global climate change - the threat of biological resources in Ukraine / / Bioresources planet: Seagull VM, Melnychuk MD, Grygoryuk IP Global climate change - the threat of biological resources in Ukraine / / Bioresources planet: social, biological, food and energy problems. Kyiv, 2008. - P.28-38.